Dennis Carr

DRE: SA662614000


(480) 825-2870
(602) 230-7600 (Office)

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Phoenix, AZ Metro Weekly Housing Market Update

Posted On: June 2nd, 2023 12:12PM

The Hardest Working Agent in Arizona

 
 
 

May 30 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published today.

The new report covers home sales during the period January to March 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid-February. No homes sold during the second quarter are included at all, even though the month of May is just one day from being over.

We should remember that this makes the Case-Shiller Index just over 3 months out-of-date on the day it is published and just over 4 months out of date before the next report is issued.

We are just now seeing firm confirmation of the turn-round in the market reflected in the Case-Shiller Index, with a higher index for Phoenix for the second month in a row. In the Cromford® Report, and in the real world, prices have been rising for 5 months now.

Compared with the previous month's series we see the following changes:

  1. San Francisco +2.98%
  2. San Diego +2.51%
  3. Detroit +2.19%
  4. Minneapolis +1.98%
  5. Denver +1.96%
  6. Seattle +1.96%
  7. Chicago +1.86%
  8. Los Angeles +1.67%
  9. Charlotte +1.65%
  10. Washington +1.46%
  11. Portland +1.42%
  12. Boston +1.34%
  13. New York +1.28%
  14. Atlanta +1.13%
  15. Dallas +1.06%
  16. Tampa +0.99%
  17. Miami +0.68%
  18. Cleveland +0.57%
  19. Las Vegas +0.49%
  20. Phoenix +0.46%

Phoenix has dropped from 8th to last place in this table despite the improvement. The market in the other 19 conurbations has turned around more violently than in Phoenix. It is quite unusual for Phoenix to move slowly, but a refreshing change. The national average increase month to month was 1.26%, far higher than Phoenix.

The change from 2 months ago is dramatic. All 20 of the 20 cities are showing positive price appreciation month to month. There was only 1 two months ago.

Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:

  1. Miami +7.7%
  2. Tampa +4.9%
  3. Charlotte +4.7%
  4. Atlanta +4.5%
  5. Chicago +4.0%
  6. New York +3.3%
  7. Cleveland +2.0%
  8. Detroit +1.1%
  9. Boston +0.8%
  10. Minneapolis +0.5%
  11. Washington -0.2%
  12. Dallas -1.2%
  13. Los Angeles -2.9%
  14. Denver -3.6%
  15. Phoenix -4.5%
  16. Portland -4.6%
  17. Las Vegas -5.1%
  18. San Diego -5.4%
  19. San Francisco -11.2%
  20. Seattle -12.4%

The national average was +0.7%. Phoenix remained in 15th place.

 

This means the few sellers we have are seeing their listings find buyers quite easily, with less than 17% getting canceled or expiring.

The listing success rate has just moved above 83% for the first time since June 2022. The long-term average success rate is only 67.6% and rates over 83% are relatively uncommon in history. although they have become much more common since 2017. This is largely due to the chronic shortage of supply that still prevails today.

In fact, we see rates over 83% only during the following intervals:

  • Feb - Jul 2005
  • Apr - May 2017
  • Mar - Aug 2018
  • Mar - Dec 2019
  • Feb - Apr 2020
  • May 2020 - Jun 2022

Those predicting home price declines should be reminded that listing success rates over 83% have been found to be incompatible with falling home prices.

© 2023 Cromford Associates LLC

 
 
As of 5/25/2023
30-year fixed: 6.85% 
15-year fixed: 6.23%
Mortgage rates have decreased since last week. 

Information courtesy of Mortgage News Daily
 
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Dennis Carr - Realtor, GRI
Licensed in AZ and CA

480.825.2870
 
Thinking of Selling or Buying?
 
Thank you for reading the Arizona Metro Market Report. I hope this newsletter helps you stay informed about local real estate trends.

The Phoenix real estate market continues to be one of the most attractive locations within the United States. An exodus from Los Angeles and Seattle has helped fuel the growth. In spite of historically high prices in Arizona, the cost of housing continues to be a bargain for many out-of-state buyers. While overall there are more listings for buyers to choose from vs last year, new listings are scarce. As a result, prices have not crashed due to oversupply. Contact me for a more targeted view of a particular location within the Phoenix Metro you are interested in.

 
If you are considering purchasing in Arizona and would like to discuss the possibility of buying or selling without being pressured, contact me so I can learn more about your timeline and real estate goals. It is important to plan ahead and develop a strategy for success. 
Find Out More
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Find New Properties on my Website
 
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Scottsdale, AZ 85260

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Hillside Home Just Sold In Paradise Valley!

Posted On: May 11th, 2023 3:42PM

Hillside Home Just Sold in Paradise Valley!

Hillside Home Just Sold in Paradise Valley, AZ - Congratulations Tom and Michelle from Minnesota! Located on North Highlands Drive off of Lincoln, this gem is nestled into a hillside with breathtaking views of Camelback Mountain, Mummy Mountain, and the surrounding valley. Tom and Michelle conducted a thoughtful survey of available homes that offered drama, yet suited their lifestyle needs. After viewing this home, and conducting inspections/investigations, they are delighted with their decision. I feel grateful to have the opportunity to assist home buyers and sellers in Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Scottsdale, and surrounding areas. If there is anything I can do to help your dreams come true, don't hesitate to reach out for a 'no-pressure' discussion about your goals and timelines.

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Just Sold near Camelback Mountain

Posted On: May 1st, 2023 5:59PM

Camelback View Home Located in the Marion Estates Neighborhood in Phoenix, AZ

 

Feeling super excited for Chris and Linda, my clients from Minnesota. They have secured their Arizona Dream Home and will enjoy living here part-time until their permanent transition in about five years. We were able to go under contract on this home during the coming soon period, prior to it being advertised on the open market with Zillow and realtor.com. They have worked hard to make this happen, and I could not be more excited for them - congratulations Chris and Linda!

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Phoenix, AZ Metro Weekly Housing Market Update

Posted On: April 21st, 2023 5:28PM

The Hardest Working Agent in Arizona

 
New Contracts are outpacing New Listings, and this will increase competition in spite of demand remaining low year-over-year.  
 
 
Apr 17 - Demand is beginning to improve. as we can see from the chart below:

The listings under contract count is making a determined attempt to breach the 10,000 level. In the 2 days since we created this weekly chart the count has reached 9,944, meaning it is quite likely that target will be exceeded later this week.

That puts us ahead of where we were in late May last year.

The Cromford® Demand Index has started to stabilize and confidence appears to be slowly improving.

 

What's the Difference Between a Home Inspection and an Appraisal?

If you’re planning to buy a home, an inspection is an important step in the process. It assesses the condition of the home before you finalize the transaction. It’s also a different step in the process from an appraisal, which is a professional evaluation of the market value of the home you’d like to buy. In most cases, an appraisal is ordered by the lender to confirm or verify the value of the home prior to lending a buyer money for the purchase. Here’s the breakdown of each one and why they’re both important when buying a home.

Home Inspection

Here’s the key difference between an inspection and an appraisal. Bankrate says:

“In short, while an appraisal helps you understand a home’s value, inspections help you understand a home’s condition.”

The home inspection is a way to determine the current state, safety, and condition of the home before you finalize the sale. If anything is questionable in the inspection process – like the age of the roof, the state of the HVAC system, or just about anything else – you as a buyer have the option to discuss and negotiate any potential issues or repairs with the seller before the transaction is final. Your real estate agent is a key expert to help you through this part of the process.

Home Appraisal

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

A home purchase is typically the largest investment someone will make. Protect yourself by getting your investment appraised!" An appraiser will observe the property, analyze the data, and report their findings to their client. For the typical home purchase transaction, the lender usually orders the appraisal to assist in the lender’s decision to provide funds for a mortgage.”

When you apply for a mortgage, an unbiased appraisal (which is required by the lender) is the best way to confirm the value of the home based on the sale price. Regardless of what you’re willing to pay for a house, if you’ll be using a mortgage to fund your purchase, the appraisal will help make sure the bank doesn’t loan you more than what the home is worth.

This is especially critical in today’s sellers’ market where low inventory is driving an increase in bidding wars, which can push home prices upward. When sellers are in a strong position like this, they tend to believe they can set whatever price they want for their house under the assumption that competing buyers will be willing to pay more.

However, the lender will only allow the buyer to borrow based on the value of the home. This is what helps keep home prices in check. If there’s ever any confusion or discrepancy between the appraisal and the sale price, your trusted real estate professional will help you navigate any additional negotiations in the buying process.

Bottom Line

The inspection and the appraisal are critical steps when buying a home, and you don’t need to manage them by yourself. Work with a real estate professional today so you have the expert guidance you need to navigate the entire home buying process.

 
 
As of 4/20/2023
30-year fixed: 6.67% 
15-year fixed: 6.05%
Mortgage rates have increased noticeably since last week. 

Information courtesy of Mortgage News Daily
 
 
Home Valuation Tool
Client Reviews
Search Homes
 
Market Reports (By Request)
 
Scottsdale
Phoenix
Paradise Valley
Cave Creek
Carefree
Fountain Hills
Mesa
Tempe
Chandler
Gilbert
Glendale
Peoria
 

 
Dennis Carr - Realtor, GRI
Licensed in AZ and CA

480.825.2870
 
Thinking of Selling or Buying?
 
Thank you for reading the Arizona Metro Market Report. I hope this newsletter helps you stay informed about local real estate trends.

The Phoenix real estate market continues to be one of the most attractive locations within the United States. An exodus from Los Angeles and Seattle has helped fuel the growth. In spite of historically high prices in Arizona, the cost of housing continues to be a bargain for many out-of-state buyers. While overall there are more listings for buyers to choose from vs last year, new listings are scarce. As a result, prices have not crashed due to oversupply. Contact me for a more targeted view of a particular location within the Phoenix Metro you are interested in.

 
If you are considering purchasing in Arizona and would like to discuss the possibility of buying or selling without being pressured, contact me so I can learn more about your timeline and real estate goals. It is important to plan ahead and develop a strategy for success. 
Find Out More
Let's Connect on Facebook
Let's Connect on Twitter
Let's Connect on Instagram
Find New Properties on my Website

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Just Sold in the Biltmore Community Located in Phoenix, AZ!

Posted On: April 20th, 2023 2:01AM

Just Sold in the Biltmore Community Located in Phoenix, AZ

 

Feeling Super Excited for my clients Tom & Michelle, and Chris & Linda from Minnesota! I helped them purchase this home in the Biltmore Community in Phoenix, AZ back in 2019 as a "test" to see if they enjoyed living part-time in Arizona. They wanted a reprieve from the harsh Minnesota winters, and a space to enjoy time together and separately. The idea for them was to transition to larger, individual homes assuming their experience living in Arizona was enjoyable. We just successfully sold this home and both couples are now under contract for their individual 'dream' Arizona homes. They will soon have amazing Camelback Mountain views and extra space to invite family and friends to enjoy the Arizona lifestyle with them. Working with them is a pleasure, and reminds me of how fortunate I am to be an integral part of the transitions that are so meaningful in my clients' lives. I am so grateful. Congratulations Tom & Michelle and Chris & Linda! Your Arizona Experience is just getting started! If you or anyone you know is looking to buy or sell a home in the Phoenix or Scottsdale area, contact me so we can discuss your goals and timelines.

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