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May 30 - The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published today.

The new report covers home sales during the period January to March 2023. This means the typical home sale closed in mid-February. No homes sold during the second quarter are included at all, even though the month of May is just one day from being over.

We should remember that this makes the Case-Shiller Index just over 3 months out-of-date on the day it is published and just over 4 months out of date before the next report is issued.

We are just now seeing firm confirmation of the turn-round in the market reflected in the Case-Shiller Index, with a higher index for Phoenix for the second month in a row. In the Cromford® Report, and in the real world, prices have been rising for 5 months now.

Compared with the previous month's series we see the following changes:

1. San Francisco +2.98%
2. San Diego +2.51%
3. Detroit +2.19%
4. Minneapolis +1.98%
5. Denver +1.96%
6. Seattle +1.96%
7. Chicago +1.86%
8. Los Angeles +1.67%
9. Charlotte +1.65%
10. Washington +1.46%
11. Portland +1.42%
12. Boston +1.34%
13. New York +1.28%
14. Atlanta +1.13%
15. Dallas +1.06%
16. Tampa +0.99%
17. Miami +0.68%
18. Cleveland +0.57%
19. Las Vegas +0.49%
20. Phoenix +0.46%

Phoenix has dropped from 8th to last place in this table despite the improvement. The market in the other 19 conurbations has turned around more violently than in Phoenix. It is quite unusual for Phoenix to move slowly, but a refreshing change. The national average increase month to month was 1.26%, far higher than Phoenix.

The change from 2 months ago is dramatic. All 20 of the 20 cities are showing positive price appreciation month to month. There was only 1 two months ago.

Comparing year over year, we see the following changes:

1. Miami +7.7%
2. Tampa +4.9%
3. Charlotte +4.7%
4. Atlanta +4.5%
5. Chicago +4.0%
6. New York +3.3%
7. Cleveland +2.0%
8. Detroit +1.1%
9. Boston +0.8%
10. Minneapolis +0.5%
11. Washington -0.2%
12. Dallas -1.2%
13. Los Angeles -2.9%
14. Denver -3.6%
15. Phoenix -4.5%
16. Portland -4.6%
17. Las Vegas -5.1%
18. San Diego -5.4%
19. San Francisco -11.2%
20. Seattle -12.4%

The national average was +0.7%. Phoenix remained in 15th place.

This means the few sellers we have are seeing their listings find buyers quite easily, with less than 17% getting canceled or expiring.

The listing success rate has just moved above 83% for the first time since June 2022. The long-term average success rate is only 67.6% and rates over 83% are relatively uncommon in history. although they have become much more common since 2017. This is largely due to the chronic shortage of supply that still prevails today.

In fact, we see rates over 83% only during the following intervals:

• Feb - Jul 2005
• Apr - May 2017
• Mar - Aug 2018
• Mar - Dec 2019
• Feb - Apr 2020
• May 2020 - Jun 2022

Those predicting home price declines should be reminded that listing success rates over 83% have been found to be incompatible with falling home prices.

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