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Cromford Infographic Feb 2021
Posted On: March 16th, 2021 10:25PM
February 2021 - Infographic JPG | Infographic and Commentary PDF
Median Sales Price Up 18%, Inventory Down 61%
Luxury Sales Over $3M up 140%
For Buyers:
Yes, it’s still a good time to buy. Is it fun? No.
Inventory is down 61% from this time last year and competition among buyers is steep. New listings are not keeping up with demand and the purchase experience can be stressful, disappointing and heartbreaking; but it’s a good time to buy.
The median sales price has risen 18% to $339,000 and the median monthly rental rate through the Arizona Regional MLS has also risen 18%. A 1,500-2,000 square foot home is roughly $1,600-$1,700 per month to purchase with 10% down while that same home rents at a median of $1,850 per month, up $250 over last year at this time. For those who would like to reduce and stabilize their monthly housing expense with a historically low 30-year fixed mortgage rate, it’s a good time to buy.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, a family making the median annual income of $72,300 in Greater Phoenix could afford 60.6% of what sold in the 4th Quarter of 2020. That rate has been steadily declining, but it’s still within the normal range of 60-75% for now. In San Francisco, the median sales price is $1,350,000 and a family making the median annual income of $130,900 can only afford 11% of what’s selling there. For those who can work from home and no longer need to live in the same expensive city as their employer, it’s a good time to buy.
Finally, it’s a good time to buy because Greater Phoenix is experiencing a housing shortage. Over the past decade a gap between the total number of housing units built and the total number of people to be housed has been growing wider and developers have not been able to bridge it. This is not something that will be solved this year, and probably not next year either. As affordability wanes, it’s a good time to stake your claim on a home while it’s still an option.
For Sellers:
Brace yourself, the showings are coming. It’s not uncommon these days to see a stampede of buyers through a home within the first day or so on the market. It doesn’t matter the price range, all areas and types of homes are flying off the market and so far this month 37% of closings are over asking price.
The most impressive development has been in the luxury market. After California announced it was considering raising income and other taxes last summer, contracts over $1M surged in Greater Phoenix. So far in 2021, sales between $1M-$3M are up 102% and sales over $3M are up 140% over last year and there is little sign of a slow down.
Appreciation rates based on annual sales between $1M-$2M range between 5%-6.5% and 2%-5% over $2M. While the northeast cities of Paradise Valley and Scottsdale have long been associated with luxury real estate, Gilbert has emerged in the top 5 cities for sales over $1M in 2020.
Appreciation rates for homes sold below $600K range from 7%-11% annually and 5%-7% for sales between $600K-$1M.
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2020 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
Cromford Infographic Jan 2021
Posted On: January 15th, 2021 8:50PM
2020 Broke the Record for Luxury Sales
Supply Down 51%, Slim Pickings in 2021
For Buyers:
There were 111,036 new listings added to the Arizona Regional MLS (ARMLS) in 2020, only 38 more than 2019, while 100,650 sold. As of January 10th, 2021 there were only 6,162 listings still active in the MLS, which is the lowest supply count recorded in at least 20 years. To make matters worse, 10% of those properties are outside of the Greater Phoenix boundary. While the number of new listings barely changed last year, demand for homes accelerated between June and December to 35% above normal. Luxury sales over $1M soared after the pandemic restrictions were lifted.
While they were already up 7.7% over 2019 at the end of June, by the end of December annual luxury sales were up 48.7%, securing an enormous record for 2020 at 2,575 sales over $1M.
Outside of the MLS, new home developers have been struggling to meet demand as well. Despite the road blocks in production due the pandemic, forest fires and supply line disruptions, as of November builders still managed to sell 14% more homes and obtain 28,204 more single family permits for future supply, up 24% over 2019. The median price of a new single family home only rose 6% from $333K to $353K and considering the median price of a resale home is $335K, that’s extremely competitive.
As supply began to drop last month, December saw 33% of sales closed over asking price and only 10% involved seller-paid closing costs in the 4th Quarter.
Bottom line for buyers starting their search in 2021, be on top of your loan and be ready to pounce on every new listing that fits your needs. Many new listings will be on the market for less than a week prior to accepting a contract.
For Sellers:
The state of Arizona ranked 3rd in the nation for population growth behind Texas and Florida in the latest 2020 Census release. When the full report comes out later this year, we expect to see California as the #1 source of inbound migration for Greater Phoenix. Moving companies such as Atlas, United Van Lines and North American have released their annual migration reports and 2 out of the 3 list Arizona in their Top 5 states for inbound moves. United Van Lines specifically cites “retirement” as the primary reason for 37% of inbound moves, 70% were over 55 years old and 63% made incomes over $100,000 per year.
While median home prices have risen 15.5% year-over-year, the median rental rates through ARMLS have also risen 12.9% from $1,550 to $1,750/month. This increase, combined with historically low mortgage rates, has fueled more demand to purchase.
As the population continues to grow, the housing gap is becoming harder to close. After a decade of underbuilding, this will take more than a few months or a year to correct. However as prices rise and affordability quickly drops, it’s reasonable to expect some demand to drop with it. With that expectation, home prices are still projected to rise throughout 2021 but possibly at a slower rate in the latter half of the year. It will be another great year for sellers.
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2021 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
THINKING ABOUT BUYING YOUR NEXT HOME BUT NEED TO SELL FIRST?
Posted On: January 4th, 2021 9:59PM
Best Things to Do in December in Scottsdale
Posted On: December 2nd, 2020 4:13AM
Best Things to Do in December in Scottsdale
BY PATRICIA ESCARCEGA
PHOENIX, SCOTTSDALE, AND TUCSON LOCAL EXPERT
The holidays are a special time in the desert, especially if you find yourself spending winter in Scottsdale. The city is no stranger to throwing a good party, especially when the holiday season rolls around. Scottsdale plays host to numerous art walks, block parties, and light displays, many of which are free to the public.
For families, McCormick-Stillman Railroad Park celebrates with an elaborate holiday display. Holiday Lights at McCormick-Stillman Railroad Park features a tree lighting ceremony, a visit from Santa, and train rides through a winter wonderland. Admission to the park is free, and train rides are $5.00 per person.
If you want to see the tallest fresh-cut Christmas tree in the country, take a short drive to the nearby community of Anthem to gaze up at wonder at the Christmas tree located in the heart of the Anthem Outlets shopping center. The Annual Christmas Tree Lighting at Anthem Outlet takes place every November. The white fir tree is shipped to Arizona from California every fall, and is progressively decorated throughout the holiday season. The tree, which measures more than 100-feet tall, is open for public viewing throughout the holiday season.
For a charming small-town holiday celebration, check out the Carefree Christmas Festival in downtown Carefree, a short drive from Scottsdale. The three-day event features an electric light parade, a fireworks festival, holiday gift market, pet parade and even real-life snow in the desert.
Local DJ and holiday enthusiast Chris Birkett puts on an amazing show every season with Winter Wonderland Arizona, a Christmas light spectacular that brings the wonder and magic of the season to families and visitors in Scottsdale. The exhibit features 250,000 Christmas lights perfectly orchestrated and choreographed to computerized music. Some of the highlights include the Island of Misfit Toys display in the backyward, an Old Western Christmas town with mine shaft and the snowfall and bubble display. The exhibit opens in the first week of December and continues through the end of the month. Visitors can enjoy the exhibit nightly from 6 pm to 10 pm. Admission is free, but donations are always accepted.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Winter Wonderland Arizona is one of the most impressive residential holiday displays in Arizona, featuring more than 250,000 lights choreographed to holiday music.
Patricia's expert tip: Admission is free, but there's a suggested $5 donation. Park on Granite Reef, if possible.
The Stroll in the Glow Festival brings the magic of the holidays to the streets of Fountain Hills. Every year, the town spends the fall putting up thousands of lights - more than 65,000 to be more exact - on the Avenue of the Fountains. On the first Saturday of December, the lights are turned on for the town's "Stroll in the Glow" event, where the street come alive with the multicolored cheer of the holiday season. Guests can also enjoy live music on the streets, holiday-themed snacks, and even a live nativity scene. Many shops stay open late during the event, and there's even a visit from Santa Claus by fire truck. Now bring your ice skates to take part in the "Chill in the Hills" skating rink.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Fountain Hills' Stroll in the Glow Festival brings the charm of a small-town holiday celebration to the desert.
Patricia's expert tip: Local businesses stay open late, so bring your holiday shopping list.
The Carefree Christmas Festival offers holiday spirit in the heart of downtown Carefree, just north of Scottsdale. The family-friendly festival features a Christmas tree lighting, Chanukah menorah lighting, Breakfast with Santa event, a holiday fireworks extravaganza, a kid's play zone, holiday gift market, live holiday music and dance performances. Enjoy lots of holiday foods, Christmas decorations and mingling in a charming small-town environment. All events are free. The festivities take place at the Carefree Desert Gardens in downtown Carefree. There is free visitor parking in and around downtown Carefree and along the Carefree Desert Gardens on Easy Street.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Carefree Christmas Festival offers three spirit-filled days of Christmas celebration in a charming, small-town setting.
Patricia's expert tip: The Carefree Christmas Festival features a month full of special events. Check the website for a full listing of events.
ZooLights is one of the biggest holiday light displays in the Southwest. Approximately two-and-a-half million twinkling lights are strung throughout the zoo, and you'll also encounter numerous animated displays (new ones pop up every year too). The festivities include a carousel, camel and wagon rides, and a stingray touch tank. There is also an orchestrated light show that happens every hour. Both kids and adults will love enjoy exploring the various animal-themed displays. Hot chocolate, apple cider, and other holiday snacks are available at kiosks located throughout the zoo. The gift shop stays open late on ZooLights nights, with various animal-themed gift items available for purchase.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Although not technically in Scottsdale, Zoolights in the Phoenix Zoo is a popular and convenient holiday attraction in neighboring Phoenix.
Patricia's expert tip: Visitors can enjoy live reindeer, Stingray Bay and entrance to the 4-D Theater with admission.
The elegant grounds of the Desert Botanical Gardens glow with candlelight during this famous winter event. Late in the year (usually in December), volunteers line garden pathways with more than 8,000 flickering luminaria bags, creating an otherworldly spectacle that draws sell-out crowds. Musicians perform throughout the evening (including strolling mariachis), and light refreshments are served. Hungry guests can purchase gourmet bites or reserve a table at the garden's restaurant for holiday-themed meal with all the trimmings. Non-member tickets go on sale in early October and sell out quickly, so plan ahead! This is one of the most unique holiday celebrations in the Phoenix area.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Las Noches de las Luminarias is one of the southwest's most elegant and magical holiday light events.
Patricia's expert tip: Dining tickets are available for guests who want to enjoy a gourmet buffet dining experience during the event.
Looking for a one-of-a-kind family attraction this holiday season? Illumination Symphony of Light is the largest holiday drive-thru light shows in the metro Phoenix area. Enjoy an immersive experience that lets you drive through millions of lights that are synchronized to the sounds of classic holiday tunes. After driving through the light display, park at the venue's own Holiday Boulevard, which features food vendors, selfie stations and a family area with kid-friendly jumpers. Illumination is presented nightly through early January. You can buy tickets at the venue, but it's recommended that you reserve your tickets ahead of time online.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Illumination offers an impressive holiday light display that you can enjoy from the comfort of your car.
Patricia's expert tip: It's recommended that you reserve your tickets online for this popular holiday attraction.
Experience the magic of the season at Butterfly Wonderland. The month-long event features butterflies from around the world, including Latin America, Africa and Asia. The conservatory will display a glowing Noble Fir Christmas tree decorated in shades of blue, silver and white in honor of the Blue Morpho butterfly. Guests can also enjoy live entertainment, a Glass in the Garden blown glass exhibit and photo opportunities with a seven-foot "living angel." Commemorative holiday ornaments will be available for purchase in the Butterfly Treasures Gift Shop. "Christmas in the Rainforest" takes place November 29rd-December 28. Visit the Butterfly Wonderland for more information.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Visitors can get a close-up look at butterflies from around the world at this holiday-themed event.
Patricia's expert tip: Christmas in the Rainforest happens every Saturday, Sunday and other select days.
Read more about Christmas in the Rainforest at Butterfly Wonderland →
McCormick-Stillman Railroad Park offers one of the season's most enchanting and family-friendly holiday events. The annual McCormick-Stillman Railroad Holiday Lights event features train rides through a wonderland of holiday lights and displays. Opening night events generally take place in December and include a tree lighting ceremony, live music and other entertainment, including a visit from Saint Nick himself. The train park also has a museum where parents and kids can view working train models on display. Admission to the train park is free. Train rides are $5 and carousel rides are $3. Children under three ride free with a paying adult.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Holiday lights at McCormick-Stillman Park is a holiday treat for train enthusiasts of all ages.
Patricia's expert tip: The park will be hosting visits from Santa Claus every Friday from night from 6:30 p.m. to 9 p.m., December 7 to 23.
Every year, Scottsdale's beautiful Fairmont Princess Resort throws one of the biggest holiday parties in the Southwest. The holiday-themed extravaganza features a desert ice skating rink surrounding by a lovely cactus garden. Where else in the world can you skate on real ice surrounded by cacti? The rink is open to the public daily. If holiday light displays are more your speed, take a stroll around the resort's grounds and lagoons, which is decorated with more than 1.6 million lights. Enjoy 14-foot poinsettias, large-scale toy soldiers, graceful swans, and more than 100 trees lit up with holiday lights. Over in the Princess Plaza, take in the singing Christmas tree. The four-story tree is decorated with 65,000 LED lights that twinkle in tune to your favorite holiday carols. Visitor parking fees apply. Check with the resort for the annual schedule and admission price.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Christmas at the Fairmont transforms Scottsdale's swanky resort into a winter wonderland, complete with ice skating rink, Santa Claus Village, and holiday lights.
Patricia's expert tip: Christmas at the Fairmont is open to the public, but guests must pay an admission and parking fee.
Read more about Christmas at the Fairmont Scottsdale Princess →
The City of Scottsdale celebrates the holidays in style with this popular annual event. Scottsdazzle is a month-long holiday celebration that officially kicks off with a tree-lighting ceremony on Black Friday. The event continues was designed to bring mirth and cheer to Old Town and Downtown Scottsdale the entire month of December. The city's unique Christmas tree, imported from Italy, is decorated with more than one million customizable lighting options and glows nightly on the Soleri Bridge. Scottdazzle incorporates various holiday-themed events, included canal concerts, wine tastings and more. Check out the event webpage for specific details. Free public parking is available in the parking garage located south of Camelback Road next to Nordstrom.
Recommended for Things to Do in December because: Scottsdazzle is a month-long holiday event that features holiday-themed events throughout downtown Scottsdale.
Patricia's expert tip: Check out the Italian-import Christmas tree on display nightly next to the Soleri Bridge.
How to Avoid Foreclosure
Posted On: November 27th, 2020 12:19AM
How To Avoid Foreclosure
Ready to sell your house?
I have investors ready to buy your home quickly and hassle-free if necessary. Or, depending on the time frame and circumstances with your lender(s), it may make the best sense to list your home to get top price. From listing to closing, I will be committed to navigating the entire sales process for you, using my expertise to sell your home smoothly, working closely with your homes' lender(s) and buyers to ensure a smooth transaction. I will also help you with your move, whether you want to move locally or another state or even another country! I will also get you the maximum moving expenses, if you are eligible, from your lender, to help with your move.
Click here to set up a free, no-obligation, consultation or call 480.529.0938 to discuss.
PS-professional services are usually paid by your lender - this can include attorney fees as well as real estate fees.
NOT Ready to sell your house?
The stress of dealing with a default mortgage can be overwhelming. The complicated and confusing process of how to avoid foreclosure has gotten a lot easier. The federal government and lenders developed more efficient systems to assist struggling homeowners. With these systems, homeowners will be able to move forward with their lives, avoiding the emotional and financial toll of foreclosure in the process. Take advantage of the options and programs available to you to move on to a more stable future. The sooner you get started, the more time you have to improve the situation. Call today 480.529.0938, or Click here to get started.
First, we will discuss your home market value; then your equity and financial situation. Next, we will discuss what it is you want to do - even if that means keeping your home! At times, an attorney may be needed and we are a great referral source to bring your team together to get you a successful outcome. Who pays for this? your lender most times will be paying for this and only after a successful outcome - no out of pocket for our services.
*other options may exist for your situation
What is a Short Sale?
Click here to review the Sellers Advisory document which explains it.
Why Neither Bankruptcy nor Foreclosure Will Work For You
Most homeowners are concerned about how their legal action pertaining to their finances will affect their credit score. Both bankruptcy and foreclosure will but there are a few differences. If you allow your property to become foreclosed, you will have to face a 7-year statute of limitations but your credit score will have to suffer doubly, which means you will have negative figures on your legal entry and your trade line. This will make it very difficult for you to take out a mortgage loan down the line, even after your credit has improved. A foreclosure, quite simply, is a red flag to the creditor, who will be very wary about granting you a home loan.
If you file for bankruptcy, the entry will stay in your report for 10 years. Your credit score will take a hit but once that’s done and you are able to rebuild your credit, your score will do okay. Since no further actions will be taken against you by your creditors, your credit score will not suffer further. However, what if you do not want to take chances and prefer to protect your credit score? Consider looking for other options that will allow you to avoid a foreclosure. Some of these include:
Loan Modification – a process whereby the lender changes the terms of the loan to make payments more affordable for the borrower. Changes may be imposed on the term, the loan balance and the interest rate.
Short Sale – many times the lender agrees for the homeowner to sell their property for less than what is still owed. Most of the times the lender will forgive the deficiency and the credit score will not be hurt.
Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure – allows the homeowner to avoid a foreclosure by handing the property back to the lender. Instead of using bankruptcy to stop foreclosure, homeowners can take charge of the situation and walk away from a financial burden with their credit score intact.
Faced with foreclosure and on the brink of bankruptcy, many homeowners feel at a loss about what to do and where to go. If you feel unsure about handling the transition of your property on your own, working with a real estate agent, like me, will give you the confidence you need so you can use the best option available for you. Keep in mind that an informed decision is a better decision.
Click here to set up a free, no-obligation, consultation or call 480.529.0938 to discuss.
Articles
September 17, 2017 U.S. News Article
Arizona Homeowners Associations Foreclosing Thousands Homes
A newspaper investigation has found Arizona residents are seeing their houses end up in foreclosure over missed maintenance payments to homeowner associations for as low as $1,200.
7 Ways to Buy Foreclosure Property Video from Attorney William Bronchick Published on May 10, 2016
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