Dennis Carr

DRE: SA662614000


(480) 825-2870
(480) 443-7400 (Office)

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The Phoenix Metro Market Report 6-3-2022

Posted On: June 3rd, 2022 2:08PM

Dennis Carr, Realtor Serving the Phoenix Arizona Metro

 
 

Jun 2 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities

 

Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal.

 

The table above tells us that the cooling market trend is still accelerating, with an average CMI decline of -33% which compares unfavorably with -28% last week.

The weakening demand and rising supply now applies to almost every market segment, and certainly to all 17 of the largest cities. Paradise Valley saw the smallest decline in its CMI but it is still down 22% compared to a month ago. The worst affected are Avondale, Gilbert, Queen Creek and Cave Creek, all down by 37% or more, while Phoenix is down 35%.

No city is over 400, even though, back in March, 14 of the 17 cities were over 400. March feels like a very long time ago.

Sellers need to be fully aware of how much of their advantage has disappeared. Be nice to buyers.

Jun 1 - We issued a red flag warning on April 24 and in the 5 weeks since then the market has deteriorated at the fastest rate we have ever seen. The Cromford® Market Index is 272.2 today, but it stood at 406.2 on April 24, so it has plummeted by one third in just 5 weeks. On May 1, the CMI stood at 385.2 so it has dropped 113 points over the month. This is by far the largest monthly decline we have ever seen in the CMI.

We admit to being surprised at how quickly the market is cooling. We expected a downward trend but did not anticipate it would be so dramatic. The softening trend is now very well established and momentum is strong. We will shortly be entering the third quarter, usually the weakest time of year for the Greater Phoenix housing market. Even in a good year, prices tend to drift lower during the third quarter. We are not having a good year, despite the incredible strength of the first quarter.

  • Supply is growing fast
  • Demand is weakening
  • Sales volumes are in swift decline
  • More asking prices are being lowered
  • Listing cancellations and expirations are starting to rise

The last time we saw a similar frenzied market cool down very quickly was in April to November 2005. This is a more striking reversal than we experienced that year.

 
 
 

How Buying or Selling a Home Benefits the Economy and Your Community

If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, chances are you’re focusing on the many extraordinary ways it’ll change your life. But do you know it has a large impact on your community too?

To measure that impact, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a report each year to highlight just how much economic activity a home sale generates. The chart below shows how the sale of both a newly built home and an existing home impact the economy:

As the visual shows, a single home sale can have a significant effect on the overall economy. To dive a level deeper, NAR also provides a detailed look at how that varies state-by-state for newly built homes (see map below):

You may be wondering: how can a single home sale have such a major effect on the economy?

For starters, there are multiple industries that play a role in the process. Numerous contractors, specialists, lawyers, town and city officials, and so many other professionals are all necessary at various stages during the transaction. Every individual you work with, like your trusted real estate advisor, has a team of professionals involved behind the scenes.

That means when you buy or sell a home, you’re leaving a lasting impression on the community at large. Let the knowledge that you’re contributing to those around you while also meeting your own needs help you feel even more empowered when you decide to make your move this year.

Bottom Line

Homebuyers and sellers are economic drivers in their community and beyond. Reach out to your trusted real estate advisor today if you’re ready to get started. It won’t just change your life; it’ll make a powerful impact on your entire community.

 
 
As of 6/2/2022
30-year fixed: 5.09%
20-year fixed: 4.75%
15-year fixed: 4.17%
Rates have increased slightly since last week. 
Information courtesy of NerdWallet USA
 
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Dennis Carr - Realtor, GRI
Licensed in AZ and CA

480.825.2870
 
Thinking of Selling or Buying?
 
Thank you for reading the Arizona Metro Market Report.  I hope this newsletter helps you stay informed about local real estate trends.

The Phoenix real estate market continues to be one of the most vibrant in the United States. An exodus from Los Angeles and Seattle has helped fuel the growth. In spite of historically high prices in Arizona, the cost of housing continues to be a bargain for many out-of-state buyers. While the market still favors sellers there has been a recent shift that is helping buyers with more opportunities. 

 
If you are considering purchasing in Arizona and would like to discuss the possibility of buying or selling without being pressured, contact me so I can learn more about your timeline and real estate goals. It is more important than ever to plan ahead and develop a strategy for success. 

 

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