The High Buyer Demand in 2021/2022 "Stole" from 2023
Below is a comparison of the number of listings under contract measured over the last three years. At first glance, one may come to the conclusion that the market has 'crashed' due to the large number of contracts in 2021 and 2022 vs the start of 2023. On a relative basis, this is the case. However, it is important to remember that 21 and 22 were abnormally dramatically high when measuring the weekly volume of listings under contract. In 21 and 22, demand was "pulled forward" due to extremely low-interest rates coupled with buyer sentiment relating to the Covid epidemic. Many sought refuge in a different location and living environment and more employers welcomed the idea of remote work. This "pulling forward" of demand "stole" from the volume of listings under contract count that we have today.However, the start of the new year is showing a steep trend upward indicating that the buyers in the market are following traditional seasonal buying patterns. In other words, the engine (listings under contract) is running the same (upward trend) today as it would traditionally, yet there is a little less fuel (buyers) in the tank. Keep in mind, this is a general, broad outlook including all price ranges and locations. When looking at different price ranges and locations, buyer demand can vary greatly.For example, when taking a look at the market of buyers in the 1M plus price range, the current weekly listings under contract count is similar to the last 2 years and 214% higher than the average from 2016-2020. If you would like assistance determining buyer demand levels in your price range and desired location, contact me for further information.
The Three Factors that Affect Home Affordability
If you’ve been following the housing market over the last couple of years, you’ve likely heard about growing affordability challenges. But according to experts, the key factors that determine housing affordability are projected to improve this year. Selma Hepp, Executive, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, shares:
“. . . with slowly improving affordability and a more optimistic economic outlook than previously believed, the housing market could show resilience in 2023.”
The three measures used to establish home affordability are home prices, mortgage rates, and wages. Here’s a closer look at each one.
1. Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates shot up to over 7% last year, causing many buyers to put their plans on hold. But things are looking different today as rates are starting to come down. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, explains:
“Let’s celebrate some good news. . . . mortgage rates are down. With inflation showing a tangible slowdown, I do expect mortgage rates to follow suit in the months ahead.”
Even a small change in rates can impact your purchasing power. Nadia Evangelou, Director of Forecasting for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), gives this context:
“With a 6% rate instead of 7%, buyers pay about $2,700 less every year on their mortgage. As a result, owning a home becomes affordable to about 1.4 million more renters and 4.3 million more homeowners.”
If 7% rates paused your homebuying plans last year, this could be the opportunity you need to get back in the game. Be sure to work with a team of experts who know the latest on mortgage rates and can give you the best advice for the current market.
2. Home Prices
The second factor at play is home prices. Home prices have made headlines over the past few years because they skyrocketed during the pandemic. When discussing home prices in 2023, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, says:
“After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”
So, while prices will likely be flat this year in some markets, others could see small gains or slight declines. It all depends on your local area. For insight into what’s happening in your market and how prices are impacting affordability, reach out to a trusted real estate professional.
3. Wages
The final component in the affordability equation is wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have increased over time:
When you think about affordability, remember the full picture includes more than just mortgage rates and prices. Wages need to be factored in as well. Because wages have been rising, many buyers have renewed opportunity in the market.
While affordability hurdles are not completely going away this year, based on current trends and projections, 2023 should bring some sense of relief to homebuyers who have faced growing challenges. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), says:
“Rates are expected to move lower for the year, and home price growth is expected to cool, both of which will help affordability challenges.”
Bottom Line
If you have questions, reach out to a trusted real estate professional to explore your options. You may be closer to owning a home than you think.
Scottsdale Phoenix Paradise Valley Cave Creek Carefree Fountain Hills Mesa Tempe Chandler Gilbert Glendale Peoria
Dennis Carr - Realtor, GRI Licensed in AZ and CA 480.825.2870
Thinking of Selling or Buying?
Thank you for reading the Arizona Metro Market Report. I hope this newsletter helps you stay informed about local real estate trends.
The Phoenix real estate market continues to be one of the most attractive locations within the United States. An exodus from Los Angeles and Seattle has helped fuel the growth. In spite of historically high prices in Arizona, the cost of housing continues to be a bargain for many out-of-state buyers. Recent market activity has become more favorable to buyers vs sellers, as overall supply has increased while prices have decreased. The significance of market changes within the Phoenix Metro is impacted by location and price point. Contact me for a more targeted view of a particular location within the Phoenix Metro you are interested in.
If you are considering purchasing in Arizona and would like to discuss the possibility of buying or selling without being pressured, contact meso I can learn more about your timeline and real estate goals. It is important to plan ahead and develop a strategy for success.
