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Why Homeownership is a Hedge Against Inflation

Sellers Compete on Condition as Builders Ramp Up New Permits

For Buyers:
Inflation is a hot topic today. Talk to any investor about hedging inflation and they may bring up strategies that include gold, commodities, rentals, or even cryptocurrency. For young adults, however, the first step towards hedging inflation is typically moving out of a rental and into homeownership. Let’s discuss why.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is arguably the most quoted inflation measure in mainstream media. Most readers assume the main driving forces of the CPI are food and energy. They make up 20% of the weight, so that’s a fair assumption. However, it’s shelter costs that are weighted the heaviest of all the categories at 36%, specifically the cost to rent. Nowhere in the CPI does the cost to purchase a home come into the equation because there is no rent to pay if it’s purchased with cash, or the cost is fixed for 30yrs if there’s a mortgage.

So while the Consumer Price Index has increased 5.4% since June 2022, once shelter is removed the increase is only 2.1%. One could argue that this is the 2-year inflation rate for those who own their primary residence versus rent, which accounts for roughly 64% of all households in Maricopa County.

For Sellers:
It’s the peak Spring buying season in Greater Phoenix, although it may not feel like it for some sellers. The housing market has begun to drift towards another balanced state over the past 4 weeks, which is the result of an accumulation of supply as demand remains weak. Listings under contract are only down 6% compared to last year, but active listings are up 26%. Days prior to an accepted contract would be 3 weeks at this time of year normally, but current conditions are adding an extra week for sellers.

Word on the street is resale homes needing to be remodeled or updated are sitting a bit longer as builders are ramping up permits for new homes. In fact, single family permit activity is up 125% year over year for January and February and-new home sales are up 16%, surpassing 2021 (the previous 10-year high mark). The competition isn’t just for the sub $500K market either. Luxury new home sales over $3M are up 79% so far this year and up 28% between $1M-$3M.

The struggle for resale listings that need paint, carpet, or significant changes is that fewer traditional buyers have the capacity to finance a remodeling project with current rates, or they may not be able to visualize the space any other way, or they may think the cost and time for basic renovations is greater than it is. As far as investor purchases go, wholesale offers are due to get uglier with increased holding costs, stagnating monthly appreciation, and smaller returns. Flip sales are down 74% from 2 years ago and at a level comparable to 2015.

Whether it’s getting quotes for work, renditions to help with visualization, or advising the seller on the most important updates to make prior to listing, it’s markets like this where professional representation and feedback makes a difference for both sellers and buyers. Despite current challenges, sellers are averaging 97.8% of their last list price at close of escrow so far this month. Seller-paid closing-cost assistance is down 2% to 44% of sales, and the median sales price increased to $444,900, up 6% from last year.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report

Apr 18 - Here is our latest table of Cromford® Market Index values for the single-family markets in the 17 largest cities

The average change in CMI over the past month is +1.1%, up from +0.3% last week.

We have 9 cities showing an increase in their Cromford® Market Index over the past month, while 8 have declined. This is worse than last week. Mixed signals again.

Tempe, Goodyear and Paradise Valley are the biggest moves in favor of sellers, followed by Scottsdale. Fountain Hills, Queen Creek, Cave Creek are the primary locations moving in favor of buyers. Buckeye remains adrift at the bottom of the table while Chandler is still way out in front at the top. Gilbert is attempting to challenge Chandler while Queen Creek has joined Maricopa below the 80 level.

10 out of 17 cities are seller's markets. We have 2 cities that are balanced, while 5 are buyer's markets. This mix is weaker than last week thanks to Cave Creek moving from balanced to a buyer's market.

Concise Daily Market Snapshot

The table below provides a concise statistical summary of today's residential resale market in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. 
The figures shown are for the entire Arizona Regional area as defined by ARMLS. All residential resale transactions recorded by ARMLS are included. 
All dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions, and other non-MLS transactions are not included. Land, commercial units, and multiple dwelling units are also excluded.

Should I Wait for Mortgage Rates to Come Down Before I Move?

If you’ve got a move on your mind, you may be wondering whether you should wait to sell until mortgage rates come down before you spring into action. Here’s some information that could help answer that question for you.

In the housing market, there’s a longstanding relationship between mortgage rates and buyer demand. Typically, the higher rates are, you’ll see lower buyer demand. That’s because some people who want to move will be hesitant to take on a higher mortgage rate for their next home. So, they decide to wait it out and put their plans on hold.

But when rates start to come down, things change. It goes from limited or weak demand to good or strong demand. That’s because a big portion of the buyers who sat on the sidelines when rates were higher are going to jump back in and make their moves happen. The graph below helps give you a visual of how this relationship works and where we are today:

As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist for Bright MLS, explains:

“The higher rates we’re seeing now [are likely] going to lead more prospective buyers to sit out the market and wait for rates to come down.”

Why You Might Not Want To Wait

If you’re asking yourself: what does this mean for my move? Here’s the golden nugget. According to experts, mortgage rates are still projected to come down this year, just a bit later than they originally thought. 

When rates come down, more people are going to get back into the market. And that means you’ll have a lot more competition from other buyers when you go to purchase your next home. That may make your move more stressful if you wait because greater demand could lead to an increase in multiple offer scenarios and prices rising faster.

But if you’re ready and able to sell now, it may be worth it to get ahead of that. You have the chance to move before the competition increases.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about whether you should wait for rates to come down before you move, don’t forget to factor in buyer demand. Once rates decline, competition will go up even more. If you want to get ahead of that and sell now, talk to a real estate agent.